Newsletter September 2017

The Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), the University of International Business and Economics (UIBE), and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation jointly organised this year’s Beijing Humboldt Forum in the Chinese capital from 16 to 18 September 2017. As part of the forum, ZEW organised a session entitled “Implementing the Paris Agreement – The Role of the European Union and China“.

During the session, ZEW researcher Dr. Sebastian Voigt and ZEW Research Associate Professor Andreas Löschel engaged in a discussion with international guests regarding the role of China and the EU in international climate policy, especially with regard to the Paris Climate Agreement.

Your Ideas. Your Future. – On 28 and 29 September 2017, around 200 high school students will visit the Regionales Berufsbildungszentrum Wirtschaft (RBZ, regional vocational training centre for economy) in Kiel for the third YES! – Young Economic Summit. Thirteen teams from six federal states will present their ideas on how to solve some of the most pressing global economic questions of our time and discuss them with experts from the fields of science, economics, politics and society. This is the first year that ZEW is participating in the YES! project as a research partner.

Recently, the Federal Minister of Transport, Alexander Dobrindt, announced a 350-million-euro subsidy for 2018, designed to lower track charges for freight transport and encourage shippers to move from roads to rails. The basic question in this context is: How fair is the competition between trains, buses, planes and the other main mode of transport, cars? In other words, is a euro of public funds better spent for maintaining streets or expanding rails or adding another runway? And will each infrastructure’s users contribute equally to its funding, or will there be competitive distortions between them?

The German government is literally rolling in money. Calculations carried out by the German Federal Ministry of Finance indicate that additional tax revenues are likely to amount to 46 billion euros between 2018 and 2021. This should be enough reason for policy-makers to implement comprehensive tax reforms after the federal election. What can and needs to be taken into consideration when implementing such reforms? And is it realistic to expect tax relief? ZEW family economist Holger Stichnoth provides some answers to questions regarding possible future tax policies in Germany.

The Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) contributed actively to the 2017 Annual Conference of the Verein für Socialpolitik (VfS, German Economic Association) held at the University of Vienna from 3 to 6 September, with ZEW researchers providing a total of 18 presentations. In addition to the presentations, ZEW also hosted an information stand at the conference site, which offered VfS participants the opportunity to catch up on research, publications, events, and career possibilities at ZEW. This year’s conference, which gathered around 800 participants, focused on the core topic Alternative Structures for Money and Banking.

The new Seminar Programme of the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) has been released, featuring an extended range of seminars. The programme includes, for instance, a newly developed seminar on virtual presentations, which aims to provide participants with the latest and most important methods of communication in the virtual space. ZEW offers scientifically grounded qualification programmes for specialists and executive staff from all areas.

Professor Hannes Rehm, former member of the Scientific Advisory Council of the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), died at the age of 74. ZEW will remember the former chair of Nord/LB and spokesperson for SoFFin (Special Financial Market Stabilisation Fund) as a highly merited member of the Scientific Advisory Council.

According to the most recent survey for September (6–20 September 2017), the economic outlook for China has improved again, rising by 8.3 points. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, currently stands at 8.3 points (August 2017: 0.0 points), coming in once again slightly above the long-term average of 5.1 points. The point forecasts for the growth of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) for 2018 have also increased from 6.6 per cent to a current reading of 6.7 per cent. The forecasts for 2017 have, however, remained unchanged at 6.8 per cent.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany improved in September 2017. Climbing 7.0 points compared to the previous month, the indicator now stands at 17.0 points. The indicator, however, still remains below the long-term average of 23.8 points.“The solid growth figures in the second quarter of 2017 in combination with a steep rise in bank lending and increasing investment activities by both the government and private firms are likely reasons for the financial market experts’ significantly more positive outlook compared to that of last month.

Their expectations are further corroborated by stable global economic development. The German federal elections do not seem to have been a source of uncertainty. The worries about the recent strengthening of the euro has, for now, also faded into the background,” comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach.

The release date of a movie in the United States is likely to be changed when competition is particularly high from a number of other high-quality movies that are set to hit screens in the same week. In this context, competition from movies by the same director or within the same genre have the greatest influence on box office revenue. If competition is high, the decision to reschedule the release of a movie tends to increase its overall sales by up to six million dollars compared to the sales the movie would have generated with its original release date.

These are the results of a study by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, on competitive effects in product niches regarding the timing of product releases of so-called experience goods.

Our publications are available for download in PDF format. PDF files can be viewed using for example the Acrobat Reader, which you can download for free at https://acrobat. adobe. com/us/en/acrobat/pdf-reader. html

Matthias Hunold; Kai Hüschelrath; Ulrich Laitenberger; Johannes Muthers
Competition, Collusion and Spatial Sales Patterns – Theory and Evidence

Rainer Bräutigam; Christoph Spengel; Kathrin Stuzenberger
The Development of Corporate Tax Structures in the European Union from 1998 to 2015 – Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis

Niklas Dürr; Benjamin Engelstätter; Michael R. Ward
Strategic Microscheduling of Movies

Irene Bertschek, Reinhold Kesler, Ulrich Laitenberger, Ecorys, Kantar TNS Nederland and WIFO
Business-to-Business Relations in the Online Platform Environment

Research Support of the Independent Advisory Board of the German Stability Council 2018

Speaker: Nina Bobkova (University of Bonn)
Location of the event: ZEW, Mannheim

Speaker: Peter Abegg (Deutsche Bahn AG)
Location of the event: ZEW, Mannheim

Speaker: Matteo Alpino (University of Oslo)
Location of the event: ZEW, Mannheim

Speaker: Prof. Jörg Rocholl, PhD (ESMT European School of Management and Technology, Berlin)
Location of the event: ZEW, Mannheim

Location of the event: ZEW, Mannheim

Location of the event: ZEW, Mannheim

Speaker: Professor Claudia M. Buch (Vice-President of the Deutsche Bundesbank)
Location of the event: ZEW, Mannheim

Speaker: Brigitte Zypries, MdB (Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy)
Location of the event: ZEW, Mannheim

Speaker: Prof. Dr. Christoph M. Schmidt (Chairman of the German Council of Economic Experts)
Location of the event: ZEW, Mannheim

Postdoctoral Researcher for the Research Department „Corporate Taxation and Public Finance“

Picture Credits: press release of 31 August 2017: iStock.com/stefanoborsani, news article of 27 September 2017: UIBE, news article of 28 September 2017: JLL
 
All further pictures: ©ZEW