Newsletter June 2019

In the second quarter of 2019, the German Real Estate Finance Index (DIFI) by ZEW and JLL decreased by 1.4 points to a current reading of minus 11.1 points, thus remaining in negative territory. The majority of the experts surveyed see no change in the financing situation, either in the past or in the coming six months. However, those expecting changes in the financing situation gave a predominantly pessimistic assessment. The sentiment indicator for commercial real estate financing is thus also reflecting the subdued economic development in Germany.

The Paris climate agreement has set ambitious goals: 197 contractual parties have agreed to limit global temperature rise to well below 2 degree Celsius, to improve their adaptability to climate change and to reconcile financial flows with a low-emission and climate-resilient economic and social development. But how can these goals be achieved in an economically and ecologically effective and sustainable way? Since the beginning of the year, a ZEW team has been part of a total of seven collaborative projects involving several research partners within the framework of Phase II of the BMBF funding priority “Economics of Climate Change”.

On your saddle, get set, go: From 18 May to 7 June 2019, ZEW employees again took part in the campaign “City Cycling – Cycling for a Better Climate” organised by the City of Mannheim in collaboration with the state of Baden-Württemberg. The aim of the campaign is to promote CO₂ reduction in everyday life, to support sustainable mobility and ultimately to enjoy cycling. Over the 21-day campaign, the ZEW team saved around 300 kilograms of CO₂, thus contributing to climate protection.

ZEW and the Chinese Shandong University of Finance and Economics (SDUFE) in Jinan have officially sealed their long-planned collaboration. SDUFE President Professor Zhongxiu Zhao and ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach signed a Memorandum of Understanding on 12 June 2019, on the occasion of the visit of a Chinese delegation from Jinan to ZEW. The aim of this agreement is to strengthen cooperation in fields of research of mutual interest as well as in the qualification of young scientists.

If the European Union wishes to integrate its Eastern Member States into the eurozone, it will have to put together a comprehensive reform package for the European Economic and Monetary Union that is above all credible. While the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries are generally not opposed to the euro and – in terms of the Maastricht criteria – are in a better position than other euro states, there has so far been a prevailing scepticism with regard to joining the eurozone. The main reason for this is that the benefits that the CEE states derive from eurozone membership do not exceed the costs. These issues were the focus of the most recent ZEW Lunch Debate.

On 6 and 7 May 2019, around 50 energy experts from Germany and abroad discussed current topics related to the energy industry at the eighth Mannheim Energy Conference at ZEW. Over the course of the two-day event, researchers and experts from companies and international organisations focused on carbon pricing, energy efficiency as well as the design of electricity markets with renewable energy generation. The conference was organised jointly by ZEW and the Mannheim Centre for Competition and Innovation (MaCCI).

ZEW is pleased to announce an international workshop on the Economics of Higher Education in Mannheim on 18 and 19 November 2019. The event focuses on the choice and outcomes of higher education programmes, as well as on higher education policy. A list of further potential topics is included in the call for papers. Researchers are invited to submit empirical contributions as full papers or preliminary versions no later than 15 July 2019 via education2019@zew.de.

Assistant Professor Emilio Raiteri was a visiting researcher in the Junior Research Group “Economics of Public Procurement” in ZEW’s Department “Corporate Taxation and Public Finance” from 17 to 19 June 2019. He is an assistant professor in the Technology, Innovation & Society group of the Eindhoven University of Technology in the Netherlands. His research focuses on the economics of innovation, intellectual property and technology policy evaluation. His current work concentrates mainly on the functioning of the patent system and public procurement of innovation. During his visit, he worked with ZEW researcher Leonardo Giuffrida, PhD, on topics relating to public procurement of innovation.

Assistant Professor Noah Myung was a visiting researcher in the ZEW Junior Research Group “Competition and Innovation” in ZEW’s Department “Corporate Taxation and Public Finance” from 3 to 14 June 2019. He is the Director of the Center for Leadership Simulation and Gaming and an assistant professor at the University of Virginia’s Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy in Charlottesville, USA. His research focuses on game theory, organizational economics, and financial economics. His current work concentrates mainly on equilibrium selection in coordination games as well as information sharing between competitors. In addition, as a market design problem for internal labour markets, his U.S. Department of Defense research investigates on improving efficiencies in retention, compensation, and assignments. His centre recently debuted a participatory simulation on forced migration using system dynamics methodology and data from the Syrian refugee crisis. During his visit, he worked with ZEW researcher Dr. Bernhard Ganglmair on topics relating to expectations of receiving feedback when competitors share valuable information.

According to the most recent survey for June (5–19 June 2019), the economic outlook for China has decreased by 9.5 points to a reading of minus 7.8 points. The indicator thus finds itself once again in negative territory (May 2019: 1.7 points). The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has thus been experiencing an almost uninterrupted series of negative readings since April 2018. May 2019 was the only month in which the indicator moved into slightly positive territory for a short period of time.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany decreased sharply in June 2019, and now stands at minus 21.1 points. This corresponds to a drop of 19.0 points compared to the previous month. The indicator’s long-term average is 22.0 points. Over the same period, the assessment of the economic situation in Germany slightly worsened by 0.4 points, with the corresponding indicator falling to a current reading of 7.8 points. The economic outlook for Germany is therefore similarly negative as it was in the last quarter of 2018.

At its meeting today, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) postponed the earliest possible date for an initial interest rate hike until mid-2020. In addition, the Council decided on details for a new series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III). Professor Friedrich Heinemann, head of the “Corporate Taxation and Public Finance” Research Department at ZEW, comments on the ECB’s latest decision.

To further reduce the quantity of food wasted in Germany by facilitating a needs-based distribution of food donations to food banks is the goal of a project of the Research Group “Market Design” at ZEW. To this end, the ZEW Research Group is helping to develop a digital platform to improve the network between food banks, wholesalers and food producers.

The first European-Chinese Business & Innovation Forum at ZEW provided insights into the trends and perspectives regarding cooperation and competition between the economies of Europe and China. Over the course the event, international experts from the realms of politics, research and economics discussed the future development of European-Chinese economic relations. Mannheim is the only city in Germany to hold such a forum, which has been organised in cooperation with ZEW and the European Commission.

From the point of view of Central and Eastern European (CEE) EU Member States, the attractiveness of the euro has declined significantly in recent years. If the eurozone were to move towards greater fiscal centralisation and solidarity, this would probably increase the scepticism of these countries about joining the single currency. Only a well-balanced reform package that credibly prevents the collectivisation of government debt could pave the way for an eastward expansion of the eurozone. These are the findings of a study conducted by ZEW with support of the Brigitte Strube Stiftung.

Our publications are available to download in PDF format. PDF files can be viewed using, among others, Acrobat Reader, which you can download for free at https://acrobat. adobe. com/us/en/acrobat/pdf-reader. html

Ingo Vogelsang
Net Neutrality Regulation: Much Ado About Nothing?

Susanne Steffes and Arne Jonas Warnke
Determinants of Work-Related Training: An Investigation of Observed and Unobserved Firm, Job and Worker Heterogeneity

Astrid Dannenberg and Carlo Gallier
The Choice of Institutions to Solve Cooperation Problems: A Survey of Experimental Research

Enzo Brox and Tommy Krieger
Birthplace Diversity and Team Performance

Giacomo Corneo and Guido Neidhöfer
Income Redistribution and Self-Selection of Immigrants

Julia Heigle and Friedhelm Pfeiffer
An Analysis of Selected Labor Market Outcomes of College Dropouts in Germany – A Machine Learning Estimation Approach

Sebastian Blesse, Annika Havlik and Friedrich Heinemann
Searching for a Euro Reform Consensus: The Perspective from Central and Eastern Europe

Marius Berger, Josefine Diekhof, Thorsten Doherr, Jürgen Egeln, Sandra Gottschalk, Martin Hud, Mila Köhler, Christian Rammer, Henning Kroll, Peter Neuhäusler, Patricia Helmich, Jan-Philipp Kramer, Friedemann Koll, Adriana Cruz, Janosch Nellen, Moritz Schrapers and Caroline Winkelmann
Analysen zum Innovationsstandort Sachsen (Analyses on the Saxon Innovation System)
 
An executive summary and a detailed report are available on this report:
Download executive summary as PDF file (387 KB)
Download detailed report as PDF file (7,5 MB)

Sandra Gottschalk, Annegret Hauer, Detlef Keese and Moritz Lubczyk
Die volkswirtschaftliche Bedeutung der Familienunternehmen (The Economic Importance of Family Enterprises)

Martin Brussig, Patrizia Aurich-Beerheide , Johannes Kirsch , Philipp Langer , Friedhelm Pfeiffer, Boris Ivanov, Laura Pohlan, Nils Pagels, Andrea Gabler , Sandra Kotlenga, Barbara Nägele, Henry Puhe and Rita Kleinemeier
Evaluation des Bundesprogramms „Soziale Teilhabe am Arbeitsmarkt“ – 3. Zwischenbericht (Evaluation of the Federal Programme “Social Inclusion into the Labour Market” – 3rd Interim Report)

Analysis of Economic Data for the Cluster ICT, Media, Cultural Economy 2019

Developing a Monitoring Tool for Future Support Programmes of the Ministry of Economy, Work and Housing of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg

Firm Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy – Indicator Study 2020

Improving School Admissions for Diversity and Better Learning Outcomes

SEEK Project 2019: Wage Inequality, Labour Shares and ICT

The Local Economic Impacts of Wind Power Deployment in Denmark

Speaker: Jens Ruhose (Leibniz University Hannover)
Location of the event: ZEW, Mannheim

Speaker: Jeffrey P. Cohen (University of Connecticut, USA)
Location of the event: ZEW, Mannheim

Location of the event: Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France

Location of the event: ZEW, Mannheim

Location of the event: ZEW, Mannheim

Speaker: Professor Jean Pisani-Ferry (Sciences Po Paris, France and Hertie School of Governance, Berlin)
Location of the event: ZEW, Mannheim

Postdoctoral Researcher (100 %) for the Research Department “Environmental and Resource Economics, Environmental Management”

Picture Credits: news article of 27 June 2019: JLL and ZEW, news article of 27 June 2019: iStock.com/kelvinjay, news article of 06 June 2019: FKPH, press release of 06 June 2019: Anna Logue Fotografie/ ZEW, press release of 06 June 2019: BMEL, press release of 05 June 2019: Elmar Witt, press release of 05 June 2019: iStock.com/Keith Binns
 
 
All further pictures: ©ZEW